Jared Goff is the 2016 version of the “Media Poster Boy”. Just like every other year, Cowboys fans are already talking about drafting Romo’s replacement. This year, it’s Goff. But, based on what?
Bill Parcells has a saying that I am very fond of because no truer words were ever spoken by a proven talent evaluator. “We have to draft who the colleges send us”. It doesn’t matter how deep the position is entering that years draft, someone has to be ranked #1. It’s looking like in 2016, it will be Jared Goff on many boards.
It doesn’t mean that player is qualified to be a first round pick. The NFL is always looking for the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. Many teams are desperate to make a splash in an attempt to fill seats, and drafting a QB is usually a good way to do that. The NFL is a QB starved league and many teams will act out of desperation high in the 1st round and draft a guy the colleges sent them. In many cases, the media controls who that is. The fact is, in too many cases the first guy taken wasn’t the best QB in that draft. Sometimes he is a late round or undrafted player.
How does the media have a lot of influence on the draft process?
It’s simple: if fans see a guys face every time they turn on the TV, they know who he is and already think he must be the best. If a team drafts a player in the first round that the fans never heard of, they will be in an outrage. We have heard the boos from the fans in attendance at the draft do this many times when it comes to teams with a good GM. Once they see how good that player turns out, all of a sudden they are on the bandwagon.
How many of you Cowboys fans will admit now that you wanted to cut Tony Romo and draft RGIII?Â Remember all the hype about Jadaveon Clowney? Johnny Manziel? Brady Quinn? Ryan Leaf? JaMarcus Russel? Jaemis Winston? David Carr? Tim Couch? I could go on and on. I am adding Jared Goff to the list. When are fans going to learn you can’t believe everything you see on TV? However, the hype generated by the media entices GM’s to draft that player to appease the fans.
I keep telling fans that the Dallas Cowboys would be foolish to drop a 1st round pick on a QB next year when Tony Romo still has at least 3-4 years left in the tank and they already have a solid QB on the roster. There are too many glaring needs on the roster at other positions. All of that being said, I want to do a little comparison, and following that comparisonÂ I am going to ask you a question.
What standards do the same media outlets hyping these QB’s base their skill-set on at the NFL level?
It starts with the win column, but the post season success first and foremost. A QB is remembered by how many chanpionships he won. To an analyst such as myself, I look primarily at football IQ, anticipation/accuracy, ability to get the ball in to the endzone and protecting the rock. These are based on completion percentage, TD to pick ratio and overall passer rating. Poise and being able to play under pressure such as in big games is important too. Some QBs play lights out in the regular season, but fall apart under pressure in big games.
What if I told you Kellen Moore is much better across the board: (in my categories and the medias categories) than Jared Goff?
Lets start with the medias categories. Jared Goff is currently 11-19 in the regular season, 0-2 against BCS schools and has never led his team to a bowl game. Kellen Moore is 50-3 as a starter, undefeated (8-0) against the BCS schools and 3-1 in bowl games.
Now let’s take a look at the overall statistics. Jared Goff has started 30 games to date and completed 786 of 1,264 passes (62.2%) for 9,451 yards (7.5 YPA) 70 TDs and 26 picks for a passer rating of 139.2. So far this season he has 17 TDs and 9 picks. Kellen Moore started 50 games and completed 1,157 of 1,658 passes (69.8%) for 14,667 yards (8.8 YPA), 142 TDs and 28 interceptions for a passer rating of 169.0. Goff only has two less picks in 20 less starts.
Taking all of this in to consideration: why do the same media outlets rank Jared Goff as the best QB in the draft, (currently projected the 3rd overall pick by CBS) that projected Kellen Moore late rounds to undrafted? The only thing I see in Goff that may be considered a positive is he is 6′-4″ tall and Moore is 6′-0″. If you look at that 6′-4″ frame, it looks like a rail and very fragile. Considering Moore was better in all categories and already has some NFL experience:
Do you really want to drop a first round draft pick on a lesser quarterback before giving Moore an opportunity in a regular season game?
This reminds me of the people who wanted to cut Tony Romo and draft RGIII. Jared Goff is merely what the colleges sent them to draft. In the video below, you can see how he played against a quality college front recently. Goff has a tendency to throw without setting his feet which is a hard habit to break and leads to errant passes lacking zip and accuracy. He tends to get happy feet and make bad decisions when under pressure and plays in an offense that consists of a lot of short to intermediate passes workingÂ out of the shot gun.
How well can he play under center?. Can he make the deep throws with any consistency? How will he perform against NFL defenses? Considering how many picks he throws in college, how will he do throwing in to tighter windows at the next level? Too many questions for a 1st round pick.